Policy is a course or principle of action adopted or proposed by a government, party, business, or individual. Our current administration says their policy is to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. A very noble policy and goal. A primary focus is the transition from gas cars to Electric Vehicles (EVs.). It appears, though, that they have not developed a plan or determined how much time it will take to realize the transition and what specific actions need to be taken to affect the transition. Instead, it appears to me that the administration’s strategy is to make the production, use and transport of gasoline as expensive and difficult as possible, hoping that will incentivize people to transition to EVs. Why do anything related to the existing energy sources until a plan has been developed and at least partially executed for the transition to EVs? If I were planning on installing solar panels on my house, I would not do anything that would impact my existing gas furnace until the solar panels were installed and operating and I determined whether I needed supplemental energy and how much.
There are some elementary questions that need to be asked and answered. And these questions should have been asked and answered prior to any changes in our existing energy supply and even before taking any actions that impact our ability to produce energy in the future or that increase the cost of fossil fuels:
Are the EVs currently being produced capable of replacing all vehicle uses in the US? What are they capable of replacing based on their current capabilities? What future EV capabilities will allow them to replace other uses? What are near-term projected capabilities that will allow other uses?
What is a reasonable rate of transition to EVs based on infrastructure availability? What is the strategy to provide charging stations throughout all portions of the US? What is the driving range of an EV that will be used to determine the location of charging stations? Is the policy to have charging stations in individual homes, in neighborhoods, in apartment buildings, in condos, etc. Are the electrical capabilities for EV charging being required for new homes, apartment buildings, condos, etc.? Are communities developing city plans for charging stations? Does the Federal Government have a plan for EV charging?
What is a reasonable rate of transition to EVs based on material supplies? What is the strategy for developing sources for the materials required to build batteries for EVs? Have research studies been done and completed to determine where and how sustainable supplies of materials such as lithium will be obtained and a timeframe that they will be available to support the desired rate of transition to EVs?
What is a reasonable rate of transition to EVs based on cost? When do we expect the price of EVs to be equivalent to the cost of gas cars? My understanding is that currently the average cost of a gasoline car is around $30,000 while the average cost of an EV is around $60,000! What is the price differential between an EV and a gas car that it would be realistic to expect that a person would and/or would be able to spend to transition to an EV.?. What is a reasonable rate of transition to EVs for trucks, buses, etc. based on cost and turnover rate.? Is the strategy to replace or to transition at end of lifetime? Based on the cost of EVs a realistic transition rate will be strongly influenced by cost
Answers to all of these questions and many others should be used to develop a realistic plan for transition to EVs and to project yearly decreases in gasoline use that can be achieved.
It’s easy to just demonize the oil and gas industry and implement policies that increase gas prices rather than doing the hard work of actually planning for a realistic transition to EVs. There is a myriad of factors that impact our ability to transition to EVs and the availability and cost of gasoline should not artificially be made one of them.